Why Visa Stock Was Under Pressure, 2025–Early 2026

Kun Xia Research · V coverage · 15 September 2026

Based on public web reporting, not the filings in sources/. Treat as prior work to verify against filings.

Bottom line. The business kept growing; the multiple shrank. Investors priced in a higher chance that Visa's "toll road" gets regulated or bypassed. By late March 2026 the shares were about $305, trading at roughly 23x forward earnings versus a five-year average near 27x.

Why it matters for how Visa makes money

Visa doesn't lend and doesn't collect the 2–3% swipe fee; card-issuing banks keep that. Visa earns a small fee on every transaction that runs through its network, at operating margins around 68%. So the risk isn't a bad quarter. It's anything that pushes volume off Visa's network or caps the fees around it.

The four worries

WhenWorryWhat happenedStock reaction
June 2025StablecoinsBypassWSJ reported Walmart and Amazon exploring their own stablecoins to avoid card fees, as the GENIUS Act (US stablecoin rules) moved through Congress. First time a "bypass the network" story felt real.−5.4% on 13 June
Jan 2026Political attack on card economicsRegulation12 Jan: Trump called for a one-year 10% cap on card interest rates. 13 Jan: he endorsed the Credit Card Competition Act, forcing banks to offer a second, non-Visa/Mastercard network on credit cards. The bill stalled again in March 2026 (third failed attempt) but now has White House backing.>5% drop on 13 Jan, after a decline on 12 Jan
Feb 2026AI agentsDisintermediationCitrini Research argued AI shopping agents could route payments over cheaper stablecoin rails, still using Visa's identity and fraud tools but settling elsewhere, splitting up the bundle behind Visa's pricing power.Hit V, MA, AXP and DASH
OngoingLegal overhangLitigationUK merchant-fee ruling (Visa won right to appeal, March 2026); US swipe-fee settlement; DOJ's 2024 debit antitrust suit. No change to Visa's economics yet, but steady headlines.Persistent drag

What didn't break

Is the selloff justified?

Why Visa is hard to displace

  • Largest two-sided network: billions of cards, tens of millions of accepting merchants.
  • Banks rely on its fraud tools and dispute handling.
  • Political attacks mostly target banks' interchange, not Visa's own network fee.

Bear case

  • Stablecoins and AI agents make the network less necessary.
  • Visa is building into both (stablecoin settlement, "Agentic Ready"), but as of Q3 FY2026 investors couldn't see how much revenue those efforts bring in. That uncertainty holds the multiple down.

Sources